Research
Publications
Oparina, E.*, & Srisuma, S. (2022). Analyzing Subjective Wellbeing Data with Misclassification. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 40(2), 730–743. [working paper]
* corresponding author
Chen, L.-Y., Oparina, E., Powdthavee, N., & Srisuma, S. (2022). Robust Ranking of Happiness Outcomes: A Median Regression Perspective. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 200, 672–686. [working paper]
Media coverage: VoxEU
Working papers
Oparina, E.* (r) Krekel, C. (r) Srisuma, S. (2024). Talking Therapy: Impacts of a Nationwide Mental Health Service.
* corresponding author, (r) for the random order of authors
[latest version]
CEP Discussion Paper, IZA Discussion Paper
Media coverage: IZA Opinion Piece
Abstract: Common mental health problems impose significant costs, yet healthcare systems often overlook them. We provide the first causal evidence on the effectiveness of a pioneering nationwide mental health service in England for treating depression and anxiety using non-experimental data and methods. We exploit oversubscription and resulting variations in waiting times for identification, based on a novel dataset of over one million patients. We find that treatment improves mental health and reduces impairment in work and social life. We also provide suggestive evidence that it enhances employment. However, impacts vary across patients, services, and areas. Nevertheless, the programme is highly cost-effective.
Bhattacharya, D., Oparina, E, & Xu, Q. (2024). Welfare effects of expanding school choice.
Abstract: We analyze demand settings where heterogeneous consumers maximize utility for product attributes subject to a nonlinear budget constraint. We develop nonparametric methods for welfare-analysis of interventions that change the constraint. Two new findings are Roy's identity for smooth, nonlinear budgets, which yields a Partial Differential Equation system, and a Slutsky-like symmetry condition for demand. Under scalar unobserved heterogeneity and single-crossing preferences, the coefficient functions in the PDEs are nonparametrically identified, and under symmetry, lead to path-independent, money-metric welfare. We illustrate our methods with welfare evaluation of a hypothetical change in relationship between property rent and neighborhood school-quality using British microdata.
Oparina, E.,* Clark, A. E., & Layard, R. (2024). The Easterlin Paradox at 50.
* corresponding author
Abstract: We use Gallup World Poll data from over 150 countries from 2009-2019 at both the individual and country levels to revisit the relationship between income and subjective wellbeing. Our inspiration is the paradox first proposed by Easterlin (1974), according to which higher incomes are associated with greater happiness in cross-sections, yet increases in a country’s GDP per head do not increase its average wellbeing. In our analysis subjective wellbeing (or happiness) is measured by the Cantril ladder on a 0-10 scale. Across individuals, other things equal, one unit of log income raises subjective wellbeing by 0.4 points. In other words, doubling income raises wellbeing by 0.3 points out of 10. Across countries, a crude regression of log income on per capita income gives a higher coefficient of 0.6. But, once social variables like health and social support are introduced, the picture changes. In rich countries, income no longer has a significant effect, either in country cross-sections or in time series: higher income only matters due to its correlation with the social variables. For low-income countries the result is also clear cut – income raises happiness in both cross-section and time series, whether the social variables are controlled for or not. For middle income countries the result is mixed.
Oparina, E.,* & Kirchmaier, T. (2024). Under Pressure: Victim Withdrawal and Police Officer Workload. CEP Discussion Paper 1985.
* corresponding author
Media coverage: LSE British Politics and Policy, CentrePiece
Abstract: This paper addresses the relationship between a police officer's workload and the likelihood of statement withdrawal of domestic abuse victims. We focus our analysis on high-risk cases reported to Greater Manchester Police from January 2014 to March 2019. Using this unique dataset, combined with institutional knowledge, we show that adding 10 more cases to a police officers' monthly workload is associated with an increase of the probability of statement withdrawal of 3 percentage points, or 17% of the average withdrawal rate in our sample. The increased workload is likely to be the outcome of a substantial reduction in the police budget, implying that this paper provides additional indirect evidence of the secondary costs of austerity policies.
Kaiser, C., Oparina, E., Oswald, A. (2024). Is it Psychologically Dangerous to Live in a Rich Area? Evidence from Individual-Level Data on UK Suicides. Draft available on request.
Oparina, E.** (r) Gentile, N.** (r) Kaiser, C.**; Tkatchenko, A., Clark, A., De Neve, J-E., D'Ambrosio, C. (2022) Human Wellbeing and Machine Learning. CEP Discussion Paper 1863. [webinar: earlier version]
** equal lead author, (r) for the random order of authors
R&R at Scientific Reports
Abstract: Subjective wellbeing data are increasingly used across the social sciences. Yet, our current ability to predictively model wellbeing is limited. In response, we here use tree-based Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to provide a better understanding of respondents' self-reported wellbeing. We analyse representative samples of more than one million respondents from Germany, the UK, and the United States, using data from 2010 to 2018. We make three contributions. First, we show that ML algorithms can yield better predictive performance than standard methods, and establish an upper bound on the predictability of wellbeing scores with survey data. Second, we use ML to identify the key drivers of evaluative wellbeing. We show that the variables emphasised in the earlier intuition- and theory-based literature also appear in ML analyses. Third, we illustrate how ML can be an impartial arbiter in questions about functional forms, including the existence of satiation points in the effects of income and the U-shaped relationship between age and wellbeing.
Work in progress
-
Talking Therapies: Incremental Benefits of Having Therapy in Different Conditions (with D. Clark, C. Krekel, I. Parkes, and S. Srisuma)
-
Labour Market Outcomes of NHS Talking Therapies (with V. Nafilyan, K. Rzepnicka, E. Sharland)
-
The Effects of the Nation-Wide NHS and Care Volunteer Responders Programme (with C. Krekel, A. Boler and A. Smith)
-
Feeling Good by Doing Good: The Effects of Sports and Volunteering on Wellbeing and Social Outcomes (with M. Cotofan, and C. Krekel) [conference talk]
-
The Long-Run Effect of Retirement on Health and Wellbeing (with D. Frayman, C. Krekel, and I. Parkes)
Policy reports and book chapters
Living Long and Living Well: The WELLBY Approach (with R. Layard), in: Helliwell, J., Layard, R., Sachs, J., and J-E De Neve (eds.), World Happiness Report, 2021.
Exercises (with R. Layard, J-E. De Neve, and M. Kaats), in: Layard, R., & De Neve, J. (2023). Wellbeing: Science and Policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.